Abstract

This article aims to estimate the risk of death according to sociodemographic characteristics, chronic diseases, frailty, functional capacity, and social participation in older people as well as determine the median time of death in relation to health status and social participation. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted with older people (≥65 years) in 2008-09 and 2016-17 in the city of Campinas and the subdistrict of Ermelino Matarazzo in the city of São Paulo. Face-to-face interviews were conducted at community centers and the participants’ homes. The cumulative incidence of death was estimated and associations with the predictor variables were analyzed using Poisson multiple regression. The Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test were also used. Among the 741 individuals located at follow-up, 192 had deceased. The incidence of death was higher among those who reported having heart disease and those who were dependent on others regarding the performance of instrumental activities of daily living. The incidence of death was lower among women, individuals in the highest income stratum, and those who performed three or more activities related to social inclusion. No differences in median survival times were found. Predictors of mortality can contribute to broadening knowledge on the singularities of the aging process.

Key words:
Mortality; Aged; Frailty; Activities of daily living; Social participation

Introduction

Population aging in Brazil and the world stems from demographic and epidemiological changes, scientific-technological advances, and improvements in quality of life, which have resulted in an increase in both longevity¹1 United Nations (UN). Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects: the 2017 revision [Internet]. New York: UN; 2017 [acessado 2018 jul 17]. Disponível em: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/.^,22 Miranda GMD, Mendes ACG, Silva ALA. Population aging in Brazil: current and future social challenges and consequences. Rev Bras Geriatr Gerontol 2016; 19(3):507-519. and the prevalence of chronic noncommunicable diseases²2 Miranda GMD, Mendes ACG, Silva ALA. Population aging in Brazil: current and future social challenges and consequences. Rev Bras Geriatr Gerontol 2016; 19(3):507-519.^,33 Barros MBA, Francisco PMSB, Zanchetta LM, Cesar CLG. Tendências das desigualdades sociais e demográficas na prevalência de doenças crônicas no Brasil, PNAD: 2003-2008. Cien Saude Colet 2011; 16(9):3755-3768..

Like other age groups of the population, older Brazilians have a broad range socioeconomic characteristics²2 Miranda GMD, Mendes ACG, Silva ALA. Population aging in Brazil: current and future social challenges and consequences. Rev Bras Geriatr Gerontol 2016; 19(3):507-519.^,44 Barros MBA, Goldbaum M. Desafios do envelhecimento em contexto de desigualdade social. Rev Saude Publica 2018; 52(Supl. 2):1s. and considerable disparities in social support, psychosocial aspects, lifestyle, functional capacity⁵5 Giacomin KC, Duarte YAD, Camarano AA, Nunes DP, Fernandes D. Cuidado e limitações funcionais em atividades cotidianas - ELSI-Brasil. Rev Saude Publica 2018; 52(Supl. 2):9s., and access to healthcare services for the diagnosis, treatment, and control of chronic diseases⁶6 Stopa SR, Malta DM, Monteiro CN, Szwarcwald CL, Goldbaum M, Cesar CLG. Acesso e uso de serviços de saúde pela população brasileira, Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde 2013. Rev Saude Publica 2017; 51(Supl. 1):3s.. Thus, there is a need for new care-related concepts, technologies, policies, and models focused on health promotion and the prevention of disease⁷7 Veras RP, Caldas CP, Cordeiro HA. Modelos de atenção à saúde do idoso: repensando o sentido da prevenção. Physis 2013; 23(4):1189-1213. that can enable healthy aging.

Data from the Mortality Information System on the distribution of deaths in the Brazilian population reveal that approximately 60% of all deaths occurs among individuals aged ≥65 years, with a higher prevalence among older women (68.5%) compared to older men (52.4%), particularly in the 65-to-74-year-old range. Records for the year 2018 on specific causes indicate that 65% of deaths among Brazilians 65 years of age or older were caused by diseases of the circulatory system, followed by neoplasms (tumors), and diseases of the respiratory system⁸8 Brasil. Ministério da Saúde (MS). Informações de Saúde (Tabnet). Estatísticas vitais [Internet]. 2020 [acessado 2020 mar 15]. Disponível em: http://www2.datasus.gov.br/DATASUS/index.php?area=0205.
http://www2.datasus.gov.br/DATASUS/index... , which is similar to findings reported for other countries⁹9 GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392(10159):1684-1735.. Accounting for more than 30% of deaths in this population group, cardiovascular diseases⁸8 Brasil. Ministério da Saúde (MS). Informações de Saúde (Tabnet). Estatísticas vitais [Internet]. 2020 [acessado 2020 mar 15]. Disponível em: http://www2.datasus.gov.br/DATASUS/index.php?area=0205.
http://www2.datasus.gov.br/DATASUS/index... ^,1010 Oliveira TC, Medeiros WR, Lima KC. Diferenciais de mortalidade por causas nas faixas etárias limítrofes de idosos. Rev Bras Geriatr Gerontol 2015; 18(1):85-94., especially ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, are the main cause of death and are associated with risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes mellitus¹¹11 Brasil. Ministério da Saúde (MS). Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Departamento de Análise de Situação de Saúde. Plano de ações estratégicas para o enfrentamento das doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) no Brasil 2011-2022. Brasília: MS; 2011., which occur with greater frequency and severity with the increase in age¹²12 World Health Organization (WHO). Cardiovascular disease [Internet]. 2016 [acessado 2020 abr 22]. Disponível em: http://www.who.int/cardiovascular_diseases/en/.
http://www.who.int/cardiovascular_diseas... . In 2007, 72% of all deaths in Brazil were attributed to noncommunicable diseases, with heterogeneous distribution in the population¹³13 Schmidt MI, Duncan BB, Silva GA, Menezes AM, Monteiro CA, Barreto SM, Chor D, Menezes PR. Chronic non-communicable diseases in Brazil: burden and current challenges. Lancet 2011; 377(9781):1949-1961..

In this study, we test the hypothesis that frequent conditions among older people, such as frailty, functional limitations, and social isolation, increase the risk of all-cause mortality independently of sociodemographic characteristics and the presence of chronic diseases (such as cardiovascular disease), which are associated with death in all age groups.

Data from a systematic review of population-based studies published between 1990 and 2010 indicate the frail older people (based on the frailty phenotype) have lower survival rates and a 50% greater risk of death in comparison to non-frail older people¹⁴14 Shamliyana T, Talley KMC, Ramakrishnan R, Kanea RL. Association of frailty with survival: A systematic literature review. Ageing Res Rev 2013; 12:719-736.. A comparative study on measures of frailty in terms of the accuracy in predicting mortality revealed greater risk among frail older people (classified by the frailty phenotype)¹⁵15 Pereira AA, Borim FSA, Aprahamian I, Neri AL. Comparison of two models of frailty for the prediction of mortality in brazilian community-dwelling older adults: the fibra study. J Nutr Health Aging 2019; 23(10):1004-1010..

With the aging of the population and greater burden of chronic diseases, there has been an increase in functional loss and premature death¹⁶16 Marinho F, Passos VMA, França EB. Novo século, novos desafios: mudança no perfil da carga de doença no Brasil de 1990 a 2010. Epidemiol Serv Saude 2016; 25(4):713-724.. The Epidoso Study, which followed up older people for 10 years in four home-based surveys, detected a 17.8% incidence of functional disability¹⁷17 d'Orsi E, Xavier AJ, Ramos LR. Trabalho, suporte social e lazer protegem idosos da perda funcional: Estudo Epidoso. Rev Saude Publica 2011; 45(4):685-692.. The loss of autonomy regarding the performance of instrumental activities of daily living, which reflect tasks of social independence¹⁸18 Guralnik JM, Fried LP, Salive ME. Disability as a Public Health Outcome in the Aging Population. Annu Rev Public Health 1996; 17:25-46., and its association with mortality has been described little in the literature.

Cross-sectional data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) show that social isolation, which is characterized by not having a spouse, having little face-to-face or telephone contact with family and friends, and non-participation in social organizations (clubs, religious groups, etc.), was associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio=1.28)¹⁹19 Smith SG, Jackson SE, Kobayashi LC, Steptoe A. Social isolation, health literacy, and mortality risk: findings from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Health Psychol 2018; 37(2):160-169.. Analyzing an aged cohort from the Bambuí Project (2004 to 2011), Gontijo et al.²⁰20 Gontijo CF, Firmo JOA, Lima-Costa MF, Loyola Filho AI. Um estudo longitudinal da associação do capital social e mortalidade entre idosos brasileiros residentes em comunidade. Cad Saude Publica 2019; 35(2):e00056418. found that social participation was independently associated with mortality, with a twofold higher risk among older people who did not participate in social groups or community associations.

The occurrence of conditions stemming from past and current exposures that vary according to sociodemographic characteristics underscores the need to estimate the magnitude of the independent risk of death among older people and identify modifiable factors that could be the target of interventions to assist in actions and strategies that can minimize predictive conditions of death. Using data from the Fragilidade em Idosos Brasileiros (Frailty in Brazilian Older People - FIBRA) study²¹21 Neri AL, Yassuda MS, Araújo LF, Eulálio MC, Cabral BE, Siqueira MEC, Santos GA, Moura JGA. Metodologia e perfil sociodemográfico, cognitivo e de fragilidade de idosos comunitários de sete cidades brasileiras: Estudo FIBRA. Cad Saude Publica 2013; 29(4):778-792., the aim of the present study was to estimate the risk of death and associations with sociodemographic characteristics, chronic diseases, frailty, functional capacity, and social participation in community-dwelling older people as well as determine the median time of death in relation to health status and social participation.

Methods

A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted with individuals aged 65 years or older. The data were from the baseline (2008-2009) and follow-up (2016-2017) surveys of the FIBRA study conducted in the city of Campinas (state of São Paulo, Brazil) and the subdistrict of Ermelino Matarazzo in the city of São Paulo (state of São Paulo, Brazil).

At baseline, census sectors were selected and the groups were stratified by sex and age according to the census distribution of men and women aged ≥65 in these locations. The locations were selected by convenience²¹21 Neri AL, Yassuda MS, Araújo LF, Eulálio MC, Cabral BE, Siqueira MEC, Santos GA, Moura JGA. Metodologia e perfil sociodemográfico, cognitivo e de fragilidade de idosos comunitários de sete cidades brasileiras: Estudo FIBRA. Cad Saude Publica 2013; 29(4):778-792. with final samples of 900 older people in Campinas and 384 in Ermelino Matarazzo. For the follow-up survey (2016-2017), recruitment was based on the lists of home addresses in the baseline databanks. The recruiters visited the addresses to locate participants and performed the data collection in the homes. Up to three attempts were made to locate each participant. In both municipalities, the confirmation of deaths and information on the deceased individuals were obtained from a family member and/or acquaintance. The interviewers also collected information on the informant. Data were obtained from 741 older people (523 in Campinas and 218 in Ermelino Matarazzo), 192 of whom had decreased (129 from Campinas and 63 from Ermelino Matarazzo) before the 2016-2017 follow-up of the FIBRA study (Figure 1).

Variables and measures

The variable of interest in the present study was the occurrence of death in the period (yes or no). In the occurrence of death, the date was verified by a family member (informant) in the follow-up study (2016-2017). For the analysis of risk factors (sociodemographic and health-related characteristics), the following variables from the baseline databank were considered:

Data analysis

Descriptive analysis was performed of the sociodemographic characteristics and the conditions investigated considering absolute and relative frequencies of the categorical variables and comparisons between proportions using Pearson’s chi-square test with a 5% significance level for the overall sample of older people located or not located (losses) in the follow-up study. Next, participants for whom it was possible to obtain data at follow-up were classified according to the occurrence of death (yes or no) in the period. The absolute number of accumulated incidence (%) was determined according to the variables selected. Raw and adjusted (sex, age, and schooling) incidence ratios (relative risk) and respective 95% confidence intervals were also calculated.

Poisson multiple regression analysis was performed using a hierarchical model. The sociodemographic characteristics associated with mortality were included in the first step. The second step involved those variables in the first block that maintained significance after adjusting for the other variables on the same hierarchical level plus the variables of the second block (chronic diseases, frailty, functional capacity, and indicator of social involvement). Variables with a significant association with mortality in the simple analysis (p<0.20) were included in the models. Only those with a p-value<0.05 after being adjusted by the variables on the higher and same hierarchical levels remained in the final model.

For the analysis of time until the occurrence of death considering the variables independently associated with mortality in the period, the time (in months) variable was created based on the dates of the first interview and death. Using the Kaplan-Meier method, the median survival times were estimated and the curves for each variable were created. Equalness in the survival distributions was determined for the different levels of the variables considered using the log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test, with a 5% significance level. All analyses were performed with the aid of the Stata 15.1 and SPSS (version 21) programs.

Ethical aspects

The projects received approval from the Human Research Ethics Committee of Campinas State University. All participants received clarifications regarding the objectives of the study, the procedures, and their rights and signed a statement of informed consent.

Results

This study involved the analysis of information from 741 older people who participated in the 2008-2009 baseline survey, 67.3% of whom were women and mean age was 72.6±5.8 years. Table 1 shows that only age group and the indicator of social involvement exhibited differences between proportions (p<0.05) for the sample of older people located and those not located for the follow-up study. Regarding the comparison of the located individuals (n=549) and those not located due to the occurrence of death (n=192), nearly all variables presented significant differences, except cancer, stroke, lung disease, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension (data not presented in table).

A greater risk of death was found among older people with a more advanced age (RR=1.85; 95%CI: 1.30-2.63), those with heart disease (RR=1.58; 95%CI: 1.11-2.26), those classified as pre-frail (RR=1.53; 95%CI: 1.06-2.20), those classified as frail (RR=1.74; 95%CI: 1.09-2.79), and those who reported being dependent regarding the performance of IADL (RR=1.61; 95%CI: 1.13-2.29). Among the women, the risk was 28% lower. The risk was also lower among individuals with more schooling (RR=0.64; 95%CI: 0.41-0.98) and those who reported three or more AADL (Table 2).

The results of the hierarchical regression analysis are displayed in Table 3. The incidence of death was significantly lower among women (RR=0.64; 95%CI: 0.43-0.95), those with a higher family income (RR=0.51; 95%CI: 0.27-0.96), and those who reported performing three or more activities related to social participation (RR=0.53; 95%CI: 0.32-0.87). Among the oldest participants, the incidence of death was higher among those who reported having heart disease and those who were dependent on others for the performance of IADL (p<0.05).

The general median time until the occurrence of death among the participants who reported having heart disease was 62 months (95%CI: 54.5-69.5). For those with limitations regarding the performance of IADL and those who reported performing less than three AADL, the median time until death was 60 months (Figure 2).

Discussion

The main findings of the present study were that the male sex, an older age, a lower income, difficulty performing IADL, less social involvement, and heart disease independently increased the risk of death in older people. The living context of the majority of older Brazilians, who are subject to the cumulative effects of a low economic level, low schooling, and the absence of social support, requires a care approach that considers several dimensions⁴4 Barros MBA, Goldbaum M. Desafios do envelhecimento em contexto de desigualdade social. Rev Saude Publica 2018; 52(Supl. 2):1s.^,55 Giacomin KC, Duarte YAD, Camarano AA, Nunes DP, Fernandes D. Cuidado e limitações funcionais em atividades cotidianas - ELSI-Brasil. Rev Saude Publica 2018; 52(Supl. 2):9s.^,77 Veras RP, Caldas CP, Cordeiro HA. Modelos de atenção à saúde do idoso: repensando o sentido da prevenção. Physis 2013; 23(4):1189-1213.^,2121 Neri AL, Yassuda MS, Araújo LF, Eulálio MC, Cabral BE, Siqueira MEC, Santos GA, Moura JGA. Metodologia e perfil sociodemográfico, cognitivo e de fragilidade de idosos comunitários de sete cidades brasileiras: Estudo FIBRA. Cad Saude Publica 2013; 29(4):778-792..

The greater mortality rate among men has been observed in all ages and groups of causes in Brazil³⁰30 Laurenti R, Mello Jorge MHP, Gotlieb SLD. Perfil epidemiológico da morbi mortalidade masculina. Cien Saude Colet 2005; 10(1):35-46.. The greater life expectancy among women results largely from differences in work activities, lifestyle, and health-related behaviors³⁰30 Laurenti R, Mello Jorge MHP, Gotlieb SLD. Perfil epidemiológico da morbi mortalidade masculina. Cien Saude Colet 2005; 10(1):35-46.

31 Sundberg L, Agahi N, Fritzell J, Fors S. Why is the gender gap in life expectancy decreasing? The impact of age- and cause-specific mortality in Sweden 1997-2014. Int J Public Health 2018; 63(6):673-681.^-3232 Szwarcwald CL, Montilla DER, Marques AP, Damacena GN, Almeida WS, Malta DC. Desigualdades na esperança de vida saudável por Unidades da Federação. Rev Saude Publica 2017; 51(Supl. 1):7s.. Despite variations in different regions of the world, women proportionally surpass half the older population³³33 United Nations (UN). Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The World's Women 2010: Trends and Statistics [Internet]. New York: UN; 2010 [acessado 2018 jul 17]. Disponível em: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/products/worldswomen..

Associations between mortality and both socioeconomic inequalities and the increase in the concentration of wealth are widely described in the literature³⁴34 Hoffmann R, Hu Y, Gelder R, Menville G, Bopp M, Mackenbach JP. The impact of increasing income inequalities on education inequalities in mortality: an analysis of six European countries. Int J Equity Health 2016; 15:103.^,3535 Mackenbach JP, Kulhánová I, Menvielle G, Bopp M, Borrell C, Costa G, Deboosere P, Esnaola S, Kalediene R, Kovacs K, Leinsalu M, Martikainen P, Regidor E, Rodriguez-Sanz M, Strand BH, Hoffmann R, Eikemo TA, Östergren O, Lundberg O, Eurothine and EURO-GBD-SE consortiums. Trends in inequalities in premature mortality: a study of 3.2 million deaths in 13 European countries. J Epidemiol Community Health 2015; 69(3):207-217.. Brazil occupies 10^th position in the world ranking regarding the concentration of wealth and the first in terms of the degree of wealth concentrated in the richest one percent of the population³⁶36 Georges R, Maia K. A distância que nos une: um retrato das desigualdades brasileiras: relatório [Internet]. São Paulo: OXFAM; 2017 [acessado 2018 abr 20]. Disponível em: https://oxfam.org.br/um-retrato-das-desigualdades-brasileiras/a-distancia-que-nos-une/., which has negative impacts on health, especially among older people³⁷37 Danielewicz AL, d'Orsi E, Boing AF. Renda contextual e incidência de incapacidade: resultados da Coorte EpiFloripa Idoso. Rev Saude Publica 2019; 53:11..

Advanced activities of daily living encompass recreational, productive, and social activities of greater complexity in the functional evaluation of older people³⁸38 Dias EG, Duarte YAO, Almeida HM, Lebrão ML. Caracterização das atividades avançadas de vida diária (AAVDS): um estudo de revisão. Rev Ter Ocup Univ São Paulo 2011; 22(1):45-51.. In the present study, the risk of death was lower among individuals who reported greater social involvement (measured by the number of advanced activities performed). Beyond the prevention of disease, the limitations imposed by diseases, and other determinants directly related to the living conditions and health of older people, conceptual benchmarks in the field of aging have sought strategies that can ensure the continued participation of this population in diverse activities⁴4 Barros MBA, Goldbaum M. Desafios do envelhecimento em contexto de desigualdade social. Rev Saude Publica 2018; 52(Supl. 2):1s.. Thus, the multidimensional concept of active aging involves not only the economic participation of older people, but also other non-paid forms, such as involvement in social, cultural, intellectual, physical, and political activities³⁹39 Centro Internacional de Longevidade Brasil (ILC-Brasil). Envelhecimento ativo: um marco político em resposta à revolução da longevidade. Rio de Janeiro: ILC-Brasil; 2015.^,4040 World Health Organization (WHO). Envelhecimento ativo: uma política de saúde. Brasília: OPAS; 2005.. Besides age and schooling, mobility, sociability, material support, and emotional support are associated with perceived quality of life among older Brazilians⁴¹41 Neri AL, Borim FSA, Fontes AP, Rabello DF, Cachioni M, Batistoni SST, Yassuda MS, Souza Junior PRB, Andrade FB, Lima-Costa MF. Fatores associados à qualidade de vida percebida em adultos mais velhos: ELSI-Brasil. Rev Saude Publica 2018; 52(Supl. 2):16s..

The independent risk of death by heart disease (angina, myocardial infarction, etc.) confirms the considerable impact of cardiovascular disease on the morbidity and mortality of the population, represented mainly by ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease¹³13 Schmidt MI, Duncan BB, Silva GA, Menezes AM, Monteiro CA, Barreto SM, Chor D, Menezes PR. Chronic non-communicable diseases in Brazil: burden and current challenges. Lancet 2011; 377(9781):1949-1961.^,4343 Lotufo PA. Trends in cardiovascular diseases and heart disease death rates among adults aged 45-64: Brazil, 2000-2017. Sao Paulo Med J 2019; 137(3):213-215.. Besides the high costs of hospitalization and outpatient follow-up, these diseases continue to be the major cause of death among older people⁴³43 Lotufo PA. Trends in cardiovascular diseases and heart disease death rates among adults aged 45-64: Brazil, 2000-2017. Sao Paulo Med J 2019; 137(3):213-215.^,4444 Piuvezam G, Medeiros WR, Costa AV, Emerenciano FF, Santos RC, Seabra DS. Mortalidade em Idosos por Doenças Cardiovasculares: Análise Comparativa de Dois Quinquênios. Arq Bras Cardiol 2015; 105(4):371-380..

Risk factors for cardiovascular disease include hypertension and diabetes mellitus, which are highly prevalent among older people⁴⁵45 Francisco PMSB, Borim FS, Segri NJ, Malta DC. Prevalência simultânea de hipertensão e diabetes em idosos brasileiros: desigualdades individuais e contextuais. Cien Saude Colet 2018; 23(11):3829-3840.

46 Andrade SSA, Stopa SR, Brito AS, Chueri PS, Szwarcwald CL, Malta DC. Prevalência de hipertensão arterial autorreferida na população brasileira: análise da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde, 2013. Epidemiol Serv Saude 2015; 24(2):297-304.^-4747 Iser BPM, Stopa SR, Chueiri PS, Szwarcwald CL, Malta DC, Monteiro HOC, Duncan BB, Schmidt MI. Prevalência de diabetes autorreferido no Brasil: resultados da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde 2013. Epidemiol Serv Saude 2015; 24(2):305-314., dyslipidemia, physical inactivity, overweight/obesity, an inadequate diet, smoking, and abusive alcohol use, among other factors⁴⁸48 World Health Organization (WHO). Global health risks: mortality and burden of disease attributable to selected major risks. Geneva: WHO; 2009. that are less frequent in this age group. Part of deaths due to heart disease among older people may be characterized as avoidable⁴⁹49 Rutstein DD, Berenberg W, Chalmers TC, Child 3rd CG, Fishman AP, Perrin EB. Measuring the quality of medical care. a clinical method. New Engl J Med 1976; 294(11):582-588. if we consider that this event results from effects that could be controlled through early diagnosis and treatment, strategies targeting the prevention of complications of preexisting base conditions, and the more timely use of technologies, especially for the economically less privileged³⁴34 Hoffmann R, Hu Y, Gelder R, Menville G, Bopp M, Mackenbach JP. The impact of increasing income inequalities on education inequalities in mortality: an analysis of six European countries. Int J Equity Health 2016; 15:103.^,3535 Mackenbach JP, Kulhánová I, Menvielle G, Bopp M, Borrell C, Costa G, Deboosere P, Esnaola S, Kalediene R, Kovacs K, Leinsalu M, Martikainen P, Regidor E, Rodriguez-Sanz M, Strand BH, Hoffmann R, Eikemo TA, Östergren O, Lundberg O, Eurothine and EURO-GBD-SE consortiums. Trends in inequalities in premature mortality: a study of 3.2 million deaths in 13 European countries. J Epidemiol Community Health 2015; 69(3):207-217.^,5050 Mackenbach J, Bouvier-Colle M, Jougla E. "Avoidable" mortality and health services: a review of aggregate data studies. J Epidemiol Community Health 1990; 44:106-111.

Regarding time until the incidence of death, no statistically significant difference was found for the variables associated with the risk of death. The median time until death among the older people was approximately 60 months (five years). It should be pointed out that the participants in the FIBRA study were a sample of older people with no evident signs of dementia at baseline and who appeared at public places for the collection of the data, which may have led to selection bias, enabling the participation of individuals with a better physical, emotional, and cognitive status²¹21 Neri AL, Yassuda MS, Araújo LF, Eulálio MC, Cabral BE, Siqueira MEC, Santos GA, Moura JGA. Metodologia e perfil sociodemográfico, cognitivo e de fragilidade de idosos comunitários de sete cidades brasileiras: Estudo FIBRA. Cad Saude Publica 2013; 29(4):778-792.. Particularly for the outcome studied (death), both better conditions at baseline and the follow-up time (about eight years) may have exerted an influence on the magnitude of the risk and the differences found in the median time until the occurrence of death.

Regarding all variables considered in the cohort of older people, the only difference in those lost to follow-up and those located was age, which is associated with the performance of activities related to active aging⁵¹51 Sousa NFS, Lima MG, Cesar CLG, Barros MBA. Envelhecimento ativo: prevalência e diferenças de gênero e idade em estudo de base populacional. Cad Saude Publica 2018; 34(11):e00173317.. The percentage of age 75 years or older was significantly higher among the individuals located, which could partially compensate for the selection bias, as age is known to be an independent predictor of death, especially among older people. Although aging and disease do not constitute closely dependent factors, there is a greater risk of becoming ill in this phase of life.

In the present study, besides age and the male sex, a worse socioeconomic status and poorer mobility increased the risk of death among the older people in the period analyzed. Among the health conditions investigated, only heart disease was associated with death after adjusting for the other variables. Sociability was inversely associated with the occurrence of death. These findings enable us to reflect upon the complexity of the health-disease-care process in the older population. The findings also point to singularities inherent to individuals with regards to the social dimension, which exerts diverse effects on morbidity and mortality that cannot be measured directly.

Acknowledgments

To Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001, to Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) and to Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) for research funding.

References

Publication Dates

History